Numerical Analysis of Stability and Risk in Highly Variable Soils

Professor Vaughan Griffiths

There has been a rapid growth of interest in risk assessment, and the use of probabilistic methods in geotechnical engineering. This is a logical development, since soils and rocks are among the most variable of all engineering materials. Analysis of a typical stability problem may lead to a “probability of failure”, as opposed to the more traditional “factor of safety”, representing a fundamental shift in the way engineers need to think about the suitability of their designs. The lecture will include results of stability analyses by the finite element method, and a discussion of the sensitivity of design outcomes to load and resistance factors. The presentation will also describe some simple probabilistic analyses and show how failure to include spatial variability may leave to unsafe stability predictions.

Parts of this lecture were given as the H. Bolton Seed Lecture at the Geo-Institute Symposium in Orlando, FL. March 2017.

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